Sample Notes (Unit 4)

Unit 4 - Constraints on Economic Growth : Population Growth

Population growth

• The estimated population growth rate for most of world history is approximately 0.002% (in other words, 20 people per million)
• World population growth peaked in 1970, at 2.35%
• Today the world population growth rate is approx. 1.15% a year, significantly lower, however there are still regions with high population growth, e.g. Africa (2.4%)
• Developing countries tend to have much higher birth rates than death rates. This results in higher population growth rates.
• At very low levels of development, the birth rate and death rate are both high.
• Then as development begins, death rates tend to fall very quickly
• Infant mortality falls as mothers and babies get access to better healthcare
• Increased nourishment due to increase in income – fewer deaths from starvation/malnutrition, longer lifespan
• Birth rates, however, take much longer to decline
• It is usually only when modernization has taken place, to the point that women work, marry later and have fewer children in order to advance their careers that birth rates start to fall.
• Thus until this happens population growth will be high – children are seen as desirable, an addition to labour on the farm, and insurance against old age.

Problems with high population growth

• Higher dependency ratio
• Dependency ratio = Number of youths (under 15)/ Number of economically active adults (15-64)
• The higher the dependency ratio, the more difficult it is for those who are working to support those who are not
• E.g. UK and Sweden, dependents – 18%, workforce – 65%. Versus Nigeria,Ghana,Bangladesh – 40% workforce, 40% dependents
• Thus GDP growth has to be shared amongst more people. Developing countries tend to have much higher dependency ratios (see diagram below).

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